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ADP Private Payrolls August: What the Headline Buries
The consensus view on ADP private payrolls for August is that 38,000 is a weak number, below the Econoday forecast of +55,000, and a signal of labour market softening. That framing is not…
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How trust-first AI ends up beating fast AI
Every organization deploying artificial intelligence has an implicit theory of how the investment pays back. Usually it goes like this: build the capability, put it in front of customers or…
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Real Personal Income Excluding Transfers Turns Negative Year-on-Year
The consensus read on the US consumer is that spending holds up, therefore the economy holds up. Real personal income excluding transfers, the measure the National Bureau of Economic Research…
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New Single-Family Home Inventory Surge Masks a Deeper Builder Squeeze
The consensus read on new single-family home inventory data is that supply is finally healing a broken market. The numbers from the Census Bureau tell a more uncomfortable story for the…
