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Nate Silver Senate Forecast Hits 65% for Democrats, But the Model Has a Known Bias Problem
The Nate Silver Senate forecast now places Democrats at roughly 65 percent to take control of the upper chamber, and the consensus reaction has been to treat this as confirmation of a blue…
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Ecommerce and Bars Drive the US Retail Sales August Surge, but the Mix Tells a Subtler Story
The consensus read on the US retail sales August surge is straightforward: Americans are spending freely and the consumer is fine. The Census Bureau data does support a strong headline number.…
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10-Year Treasury Yield 5% Tests Whether 2023’s Demand Flood Returns
The consensus reading of the 10-year Treasury yield at 5% treats this level as a crisis signal. The longer history of that number suggests it is anything but, and the more uncomfortable…
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August CPI Report Fed Hike Looked Certain, Then Came the Cut
The August CPI report Fed watchers treated as a slam-dunk hike signal turned out to be the last act of a tightening cycle that reversed itself within weeks. The headline read clearly enough:…
