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PCE Inflation Methodology Changes Trim the Numbers, Not the Problem
The consensus read on today’s Bureau of Economic Analysis revisions is that the PCE inflation methodology changes brought welcome relief, shaving basis points off the numbers the Fed…
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Treasury Yields Bond Market Stress Deepens as Inflation and Deficits Converge
The consensus read on the Treasury yields bond market is that we are watching a one-off repricing toward some new equilibrium. The data assembled over the past month suggests the repricing may…
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10-Year Treasury Yield Spike to 5.10% Masks a More Persistent Inflation Story
The 10-year Treasury yield spike to 5.10% this morning (the highest since June 2007) is being read almost universally as a kneejerk reaction to a hot PMI print. The data underneath that print…
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Trump Mamdani Sunnyside Yard Meeting Puts 12,000 Homes on the Table
The consensus read on the Trump-Mamdani relationship is that it is a curiosity, a culture-war oddity worth a raised eyebrow and a hot take. The Trump-Mamdani Sunnyside Yard meeting on 21…
