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Trump Fed Rate Cut Threat Exposes a More Uncomfortable Problem Than the Bluster
The Trump Fed rate cut threat issued on 4 September has been read by most commentators as straightforward bravado. The more uncomfortable question is what it reveals about the bind the Federal…
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Warsh labor market turnover read points to a flaw in the Powell-era JOLTS narrative
The consensus take on Warsh’s labor market turnover remarks at Jackson Hole is that he was simply acknowledging a cooling jobs market. The JOLTS data released alongside that speech tells…
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How trust-first AI ends up beating fast AI
Every organization deploying artificial intelligence has an implicit theory of how the investment pays back. Usually it goes like this: build the capability, put it in front of customers or…
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Real Personal Income Excluding Transfers Turns Negative Year-on-Year
The consensus read on the US consumer is that spending holds up, therefore the economy holds up. Real personal income excluding transfers, the measure the National Bureau of Economic Research…
