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Ecommerce and Bars Drive the US Retail Sales August Surge, but the Mix Tells a Subtler Story
The consensus read on the US retail sales August surge is straightforward: Americans are spending freely and the consumer is fine. The Census Bureau data does support a strong headline number.…
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Trump Warsh Fed Meeting Speculation Misses the Point: A Hike Is Coming Either Way
The question dominating Fed commentary right now is whether Trump will summon Kevin Warsh to the White House ahead of the Trump Warsh Fed meeting in September. It is, frankly, the wrong…
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US Producer Price Inflation Keeps Climbing, and the Tariff Story Makes It Worse
The consensus read on US producer price inflation is that it remains an uncomfortable but slowly resolving legacy of the pandemic era. The August data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics makes…
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Fed Rate Hike September Odds Near 90% as Seven Forces Drive Yields Higher
The consensus on Wall Street has spent weeks debating whether a Fed rate hike in September is politically palatable. The bond market, the CPI data, and a cascade of structural pressures have…
