The consensus read on the latest US labour market turnover data is reassuring: churn is down, hiring is stable, and the post-pandemic reshuffling has run its course. That read is broadly correct. What it tends to gloss over is what the specific composition of that calm tells us about where the labour market actually sits.
The Numbers Behind the Settled Labour Market
The U.S. Bureau of Labour Statistics August Job Openings and Labour Turnover Survey (JOLTS) shows voluntary quits declining by 23,000 from the upwardly revised July figure, to 3.07 million workers. The three-month average, which smooths the month-to-month noise, dipped to 3.12 million. The BLS confirms quits were broadly unchanged at 3.1 million and a quit rate of 1.9% over the month, a level that no longer carries the frantic energy of 2021 and 2022. Quits account for 60% of total separations, so when they fall, everything downstream follows: fewer open slots left behind, fewer hires required to fill them.
Layoffs and discharges dropped to 1.64 million in August, the lowest since March 2025, with the three-month average settling at 1.71 million. These are not just low relative to the pandemic era; they sit at the very low end of the pre-pandemic range. Retirements and other separations, a small 7% slice of total separations, rose to 363,000 in August. The 12-month average climbed to 320,000, recovering from what the JOLTS data (which only extends to 2001) recorded as a historic low in 2025.
Job openings fell by 256,000 in August from the upwardly revised July figure, to 7.08 million, though the BLS characterises the level as little changed at 7.1 million. The three-month average declined to 7.20 million. Compared with a year ago, openings are up 160,000. Worth noting: the JOLTS openings count is based on a survey of HR departments at 21,000 business locations, not a scrape of online job boards. A position only qualifies as open if a specific role exists with work available, it could start within 30 days, and the employer is actively recruiting external candidates. Internal transfers, promotions, and contractor placements do not count.
Hires rose by 46,000 in August to 5.19 million, with the three-month average at 5.22 million. Almost all of those hires filled slots vacated by separations rather than representing net job creation. Net payroll changes were addressed separately in the August jobs report.
US Labour Market Turnover and the Productivity Argument Worth Taking Seriously
Here is where the consensus narrative may be underweighting something. The standard framing treats low turnover as a sign of fragility, a labour market where workers feel too uncertain to move. That reading has some validity in environments where quits are falling because job openings have collapsed. In the current data, openings remain above 7 million. Workers are not stuck; they are, for the most part, staying put by choice.
The 2021-2022 churn was, by any measure, disruptive and expensive. Employers faced a massive reshuffling wave driven by voluntary quits, which forced rapid wage increases and hiring at almost any cost. The argument, which the Wolf Street analysis advances and which the data does not contradict, is that the churn produced a better overall match between workers and roles. If that is true, the current low-turnover environment is not the pre-recession stagnation it superficially resembles. It is the post-rematching equilibrium: a workforce that has largely settled where it wants to be, with employers holding staff who are a better fit than those they had in 2020.
The layoff data reinforces this. At 1.64 million, discharges are not just low in cyclical terms; they are low by any historical standard the JOLTS series covers. Employers are not cutting, which in a genuine slowdown scenario would be the first move. The low quit rate combined with low layoffs points toward a labour force that is broadly stable on both sides of the ledger.
The Bureau of Labour Statistics will release the next round of JOLTS data covering September in due course. Whether the quit rate holds at 1.9% or nudges lower will be the figure to watch: a sustained drop below that level would begin to look less like equilibrium and more like a locked-in workforce with nowhere obvious to go.
